Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-15 13.462212 15.701580 18.140724 20.987338 24.210484 27.738781 31.885210
2024-12-22 9.411052 12.318281 15.797941 20.235724 25.707586 32.194000 40.421224
2024-12-29 7.503624 10.832549 15.143674 21.053970 28.851676 38.683716 51.897681
2025-01-05 6.030836 9.503742 14.325015 21.359909 31.187258 44.228576 62.601933
2025-01-12 4.890573 8.354536 13.476904 21.378248 32.982113 49.074041 72.671058
2025-01-19 4.042601 7.444040 12.774304 21.419163 34.691487 53.820293 82.858287
2025-01-26 3.699727 7.255578 13.102671 22.982682 38.704404 62.069910 98.520793
2025-02-02 3.308590 6.901735 13.092720 23.972635 41.881956 69.274709 113.104442
2025-02-09 2.968143 6.568424 13.052457 24.873626 44.951656 76.480756 128.103575
2025-02-16 2.548707 6.002079 12.515061 24.846225 46.468926 81.336910 139.756469
2025-02-23 2.120983 5.331275 11.682440 24.181537 46.817633 84.304491 148.568117
2025-03-02 1.735663 4.666761 10.756007 23.216384 46.520322 86.141338 155.607045
2025-03-09 1.504614 4.307488 10.398447 23.312484 48.174342 91.446954 168.839555
2025-03-16 1.267099 3.880722 9.838868 22.950901 48.965008 95.350534 180.017566
2025-03-23 1.173996 3.793340 9.993208 24.037688 52.554069 104.347873 200.358845
2025-03-30 1.044988 3.580883 9.833479 24.445139 54.854529 111.176363 217.295092
2025-04-06 0.911205 3.321761 9.523666 24.489209 56.430227 116.772806 232.350045
2025-04-13 0.796685 3.088551 9.237021 24.543732 58.016613 122.464357 247.850296
2025-04-20 0.778672 3.147813 9.685479 26.304032 63.236529 135.241129 276.776210
2025-04-27 0.730454 3.098841 9.848600 27.416855 67.176148 145.788196 302.096015
2025-05-04 0.681632 3.035879 9.965121 28.428417 70.968306 156.243952 327.713487
2025-05-11 0.598664 2.831023 9.664962 28.397843 72.496634 162.361966 345.485583
2025-05-18 0.503345 2.550438 9.104144 27.652014 72.377048 165.197549 357.151712